Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4491 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

YX 4491 · DCA → LGA

departs 9:59 AM ET · arrives 11:25 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4491 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?