Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4517 · DCA → IND
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 28%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.