Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4560
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 4560 · RDU → LGA
departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 10:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 44%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.