Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4573
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4573 · JFK → RDU
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 12:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.