Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4752
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4752 · RDU → DCA
departs 8:04 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.