YX 4773 · LGA → DCA

departs 1:29 PM ET · arrives 2:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4773 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?