Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4781 · DCA → JFK
departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.