Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4781 · DCA → JFK
departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at JFK that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.52 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.