Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4781 · DCA → JFK
departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 40%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.