Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4781 · DCA → JFK
departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 40%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.