YX 5645 · DCA → MSN

departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 4:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5645 · DCA → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?