Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 5711 · MEM → LGA
departs 7:05 AM CT · arrives 10:56 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 15%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.