Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5723
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 5723 · MKE → LGA
departs 1:18 PM CT · arrives 4:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 54%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from MKE are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.09 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.