Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1046 LANDED 10:35 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 1046 · ATL → MIA

took off 9:14 PM ET · landed 10:35 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ 9pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1046 · ATL → MIA

Odds over time