Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1557 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1557 · BOS → DCA

departs 5:23 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
13%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1557 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?