Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1557 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1557 · BOS → DCA

departs 5:23 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±7 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1557 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?