Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2441 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2441 · CLT → SAT

departs 8:19 PM ET · arrives 10:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2441 · CLT → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?