Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2581 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2581 · MIA → SJU

departs 1:03 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM AT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

SJU (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2581 · MIA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?