Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2581 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2581 · MIA → SJU

departs 1:03 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM AT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2581 · MIA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?