Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2823 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2823 · MIA → DFW

departs 4:39 PM ET · arrives 7:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.34 in

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2823 · MIA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?