Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2861 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 2861 · DFW → EWR

departs 11:47 AM CT · arrives 4:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

EWR (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2861 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?