Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2861 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2861 · DFW → EWR

departs 11:47 AM CT · arrives 4:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2861 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?