Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2909 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2909 · CLT → VPS

departs 3:18 PM ET · arrives 4:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to VPS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at VPS that day

↑ 3pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

VPS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.38 mi Precip3.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2909 · CLT → VPS

Odds over time

How late will it get to VPS?