Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2953 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 2953 · MIA → LAX

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2953 · MIA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?