Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 309 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 309 · STL → DCA

departs 6:43 AM CT · arrives 9:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.68 in

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 309 · STL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?