Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 309 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 309 · STL → DCA

departs 6:55 AM CT · arrives 9:58 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 309 · STL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?