Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 499 · DFW → SAT

departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 7:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

SAT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 499 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?