Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 499 · DFW → SAT

departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 7:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±7 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.61 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 499 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?