Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 499 · DFW → SAT

departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 7:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.08 in

SAT (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 499 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?