Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 591 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 591 · LAX → DCA

departs 12:26 PM PT · arrives 8:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 591 · LAX → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?