Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 806 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 806 · DFW → SNA

departs 7:15 PM CT · arrives 8:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.54 in

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 806 · DFW → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?