Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 806 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 806 · DFW → SNA

departs 7:15 PM CT · arrives 8:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.77 in

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 806 · DFW → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?