Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1024 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 1024 · LIH → HNL

departs 8:22 AM HT · arrives 8:59 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↓ 8am departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.22 in

HNL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1024 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?