Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 1415 · FAI → ANC

departs 1:34 PM AKT · arrives 2:41 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAI

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1415 · FAI → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?