Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 656 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 656 · SFO → SEA

departs 10:18 AM PT · arrives 12:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 656 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?