Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 1454 · DTW → DCA
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 24%
Thu 10/8 23%
Fri 10/9 22%
Sat 10/10 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at DTW that day
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.