Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
F9 1517 · PHL → RDU
departs 5:18 PM ET · arrives 6:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 41%
Sun 10/4 58%
Mon 10/5 33%
Thu 10/8 23%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.