Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 1517 · PHL → RDU
departs 11:03 AM ET · arrives 12:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 36%
Thu 10/8 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
11am departures from PHL are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 1.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.