Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1517 · PHL → RDU
departs 7:13 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/2 49%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.