Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
F9 3315 · LAX → SMF
departs 4:05 PM PT · arrives 5:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.