Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3400 · AUS → DFW
departs 4:55 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
13%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −23 pts in 24h
−23 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
13%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.42 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.