Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3400 · AUS → DFW
departs 4:55 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 867 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.