Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3400 · AUS → DFW
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 6:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
14%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.