Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3451 LANDED 11:51 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

MQ 3451 · MIA → TLH

took off 10:50 PM ET · landed 11:51 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 10pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ TLH usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

TLH (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3451 · MIA → TLH

Odds over time