Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3452 · DCA → XNA
departs 7:57 PM ET · arrives 9:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.