Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3452 · DCA → XNA
departs 7:57 PM ET · arrives 9:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at XNA that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.34 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.