Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3461 · CID → DFW
departs 6:04 PM CT · arrives 8:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
23%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
23%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CID
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,800 ft Visibility 8.8 mi Precip 0.03 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.