Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3461 · CID → DFW
departs 6:04 PM CT · arrives 8:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sat 10/3 34%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CID
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.