Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3461 · CID → DFW
departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 8:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CID
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.