Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3496 · HPN → ORD
departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 8:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
15%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
15%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
HPN is prone to delays
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.